Dubai, United Arab Emirates – Negotiations between Iran and the United States The nuclear program that Tehran advances quickly It will be transferred on Wednesday to what is known as the “expert level”, a sign, according to analysts, shows that conversations are progressing rapidly.
However, experts who are not involved in the conversations that spoke with Associated Press warn that this does not necessarily indicate that an agreement is imminent. Instead, it means that conversations between Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi and the envoy of the Middle East of the United States, Steve Witkoff I have not broken down into what is probably the higher level trade: Tehran that limits its atomic program in exchange for raising economic sanctions.
“Accept technical conversations suggests that both parties are expressing pragmatic and realistic objectives for negotiations and wish to explore the details,” said Kelsey Davenport, director of non -proliferation policy in the Association of Weapons Control that for a long time studied Iran’s nuclear program.
“If Witkoff were making maximum demands during his conversations with Araghchi, such as the dismantling of the enrichment program, Iran would not have any incentive to meet at the technical level.”
That technical level, however, remains full of possible terrestrial mines. How much enrichment of Iran would be comfortable for the United States? What about the Tehran Balistic missile program, which The president of the United States, Donald Trump, cited for the first time to pull America unilaterally outside the agreement in 2018? What sanctions could rise and which would remain in place in the Islamic Republic?
“The most important determinant of the value of expert conversations lies in itself a political commitment to do something and experts only need to find out what,” said Richard Nephew, an attached member of the Washington Institute for the policy of the Near East who worked in the sanctions of Iran while he was in the United States state department during the negotiations about what became the 2015 nuclear treatment.
“If experts also have to discuss great concepts, without a political agreement, it can result in coupled wheels.”
The 2015 nuclear agreement saw senior experts involved on both sides of the agreement. For the United States under President Barack Obama, Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz came to an understanding working with Ali Akbar SalehiThen the leader of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. The technical history of the two men demonstrated the key to nailing the details of the agreement.
According to the 2015 agreement, Iran agreed to enrich uranium only to 3.67% purity and maintain a reserve of only 300 kilograms (661 pounds). Today, an uranium enriches up to 60% purity, a brief technical step of the levels of weapons of 90%. The latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency Put the General Uranium Reserve of Iran in February at 8,294.4 kilograms (18,286 pounds).
The agreement also limited the types of centrifugators that Iran could turn, slowing down Tehran’s ability to hurry for a bomb, if he said it. He also established the provisions of how and when the sanctions would rise, as well as the time limits for the agreement itself.
Reaching limits, relief and deadlines require the knowledge of experts, analysts say.
“A non -proliferation agreement makes no sense if it cannot be implemented and verified effectively,” Davenport said. “The United States needs a solid technical team to negotiate detailed restrictions and intrusive monitoring that will be necessary to ensure that any movement of Iran towards nuclear weapons is quickly detected and there is enough time to respond.”
It is not clear to whom the two parts will send for those negotiations.
Both Americans and Iranians have been set on what has been discussed so far, although both parties have expressed optimism about rhythm. However, there has been a notable dispute derived from the comments that Witkoff did in a television interview, which suggests that Tehran could enrich up to 3.67% of purity. However, analysts pointed out that this was the level established by the 2015 under Obama agreement.
Witkoff hours later issued a statement that suggests that the comparison reached a nerve: “An agreement with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump agreement.”
“Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and armament program,” Witkoff added.
Araghchi responded by warning that Iran must be able to enrich.
“The central issue of enrichment itself is not negotiable,” he said.
In spite of that, the experts who talked to the AP said they remained positive about the trajectory of the conversations so far.
“Although the early stages are still encouraged so far,” said Alan Eyre, a former American diplomat once involved in past nuclear negotiations with Tehran. “The rhythm of negotiations, including initial meetings at expert level this Wednesday, is good.”
He added that until now, there seemed to be “mutually exclusive red lines” for conversations, which would probably not immediately be any obstacle to reaching an agreement.
The nephew similarly described the level of experts as a “positive sign.” However, he warned that hard work potentially was starting with negotiations.
“They imply the need to go into real details, to discuss concepts that senior (officials) could not understand and answer questions. I also think they can read too much in them that begin,” said Nephew. “Expert conversations can sometimes be a sugar candy so that older people avoid working on difficult issues:” Let’s make experts discuss it while we go to other things, “or to put aside great political decisions.”
Corey Hinterstein, Vice President of Studies of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former nuclear expert from the United States government, described itself as a “cautious optimism” at the beginning of experts.
“Delegation chiefs are responsible for establishing strategic objectives and defining success,” he said. “But if there is a treatment to do, the technical experts are the ones who will.”
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Additional AP coverage of the nuclear landscape: https://apnews.com/projects/the-new-nuclear-landscape/
