Washington – The prospects for US and global economies have worsened significantly as a result of President Donald Trump’s rates And the uncertainty they have created, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
The IMF said that the global economy will grow only 2.8% this year, below its prognosis in January 3.3%, according to its last global economic perspective. And in 2026, global growth will be 3%, the fund predicts, also below its previous estimate of 3.3%.
The economic growth of the United States will come to only 1.8% this year, below its previous prognosis of 2.7% and a complete percentage point below its expansion of 2024. The IMF does not wait To the US. recessionalthough it has increased its probabilities of one this year from 25% to 37%.
The forecasts are largely in line with the expectations of many private sector economists, although some fear that a recession is increasingly likely. JPMorgan economists say that the possibilities of a recession of the United States are now 60%. The Federal Reserve has also predicted that growth will weaken this year, to 1.7%.
“We are entering a new era,” said Pierre-Loivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the IMF. “This global economic system that has operated in recent eighty years is being restored.”
The IMF is a 191 -nations loan organization that works to promote economic growth and financial stability and to reduce global poverty.
Gourinchas said that the greatest uncertainty about import taxes led the IMF to take the unusual step to prepare several different scenarios for future growth. His forecasts were completed on April 4, after the Trump administration announced radical tariffs in almost 60 countries along with almost universal tasks of 10%.
Those duties were Paused on April 9 for 90 days. Gourinchas said that the pause did not substantially change the IMF forecasts because the United States and China have imposed such tariffs so pronounced with each other since then.
The uncertainty that surrounds the next movements of the Trump administration will also probably weigh a lot in the economies of the United States and global, said the IMF. Companies can go back in investment and expansion while waiting to see how commercial policies develop, which can delay growth.
It is also forecast that China will grow more slowly due to US tariffs. The IMF now hopes that 4% will expand this year and then, approximately half a point from its previous forecasts.
While the economy of the United States will probably suffer a “supply shock,” similar to what it hindered during the pandemic and that inflation increased in 2021 and 2022, Gourinchas said, China is expected to experience a reduction in demand as purchases in the United States of exports fall.
Inflation will probably worsen in the United States, increasing to approximately 3% at the end of this year, while the IMF forecast will be changed little in China.
It is forecast that the European Union will grow more slowly, but the coup of tariffs is not so large, partly because it faces the lowest American tasks than China. In addition, some of the tariff blows will be compensated by a stronger government expenditure in Germany.
It is forecast that the economies of the 27 countries that use the euro expand 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year, only 0.2% in both years from the January January forecast.
Japan’s growth forecast has been marked at 0.6% this year and the following, 0.5% and 0.2% lower than in January, respectively.
