Omaha, Neb. – Rancher Brett Kenzy Hopes President Donald Trump’s rates It will make the flesh imported be expensive enough for Americans to resort to livestock raised at home for all their hamburgers and fillets.
That could increase prices enough to give Kenzy and others the incentive they need to expand their herds for the first time in decades. But doing that would take at least two years, and it is not clear if Trump Most of the world In addition, China is high enough to be worth the investment.
“If we can solve some key things, I think we can revitalize rural America,” said South Dakota’s rancher. “Simply control these imports, control them at a level that we can understand and plan, and then fill the void. And I think the American rancher can do that.”
Trump has enjoyed overwhelming support in the country’s rural parties in his three campaigns for president. Even so, the uncertainty created by the commercial war that instigó has paused the farmers while observing the prices of cattle after the tariffs were announced.
“I just don’t like manipulated markets because someone is going to earn artificially and someone will lose artificially,” said Bryant Kagay, who raises and feeds cattle, as well as crops to grow in his farm in the northwest of Missouri. “And how do I know it will not be me?”
The ranchers hope that tariffs can create an incentive to collect more won, and the National Commercial Group of Livestocks is salivating the idea of selling more meat cuts abroad if tariffs lead to new commercial agreements with countries that do not buy a lot of beef.
That is a great yes: Trump has said that dozens of countries have communicated to negotiate new trade agreements, but no agreements have been reached.
The only thing that is clear until now is that American farmers will probably lose one of their largest markets as a result of the 125% rates imposed by China in response to Trump. They sold $ 1.6 billion in beef there last year, and since many farmers also raise crops, they are stagger about the possibility of losing China as a market for those too.
Most of the meat exports to China are already waiting because the certificates of that country that meat plants need were not renewed in most beef plants in the United States after they expired in March. Then, the US Export Federation. UU., Few American beef plants are even eligible to send to China at this time.
Kenzy expects Trump’s tariffs to represent a lasting change in the United States commercial policy. Until now, rates have changed so much since they were announced that farmers cannot yet count on them.
“If this is just a short -term negotiation tactic, Tarzan hitting his chest, then I would say that this would be an epic failure because that will not result in a reinforcement industry,” Kenzy said.
The problem, as Kenzy and other members of the Ranchers-Padreadores Action Fund see it, the United Stockers of America livestock, is that the more than 4 billion pounds of beef of beef each year imported each year, together with the cattle brought from other countries to be sacrificed here, maintains the lower cattle prices.
Much of what is imported are lean meat ornaments that meat pilots are mixed with more fatty beef produced here in the United States to produce the varieties of ground meat that domestic consumers want. Although Trump placed most of his proposed tariffs on hold, 10% tariffs on the board that imposed for 90 days will make imported meat more expensive, so it is likely that consumers see the price of hamburger increases.
Even if the farmers decided to raise more cattle to help replace these imports, it would take at least two years reproduce and raise them. That means that meat processors will probably pay higher prices for that meat imported for at least so long. And the ongoing drought in most of the West will continue to make it difficult to raise more won.
In addition, if American farmers want to produce more of that lean meat, they could have to change the way they raise their animals because the entire system in this country is designed to produce more fatty meat so that the tender and tender fillets help the ranchers earn more money. The agricultural economist of the Kansas State University, Glynn Tonsor, said that most purchases Lean Beef America come from Australia and New Zealand, where cattle feed on grain, not grain, all his life, and that is a completely different system.
The number of cattle that is being collected throughout the country has been reduced for decades to reach the current historical minimums of around 28 million, but Texas toANDThe cattle economist, David Anderson, said that although this is less than two thirds of the number of cattle than in 1975, more beef, about 26.7 billion pounds, they actually occurred last year. This is because the American beef industry has become so good to feed cattle and raise bigger animals than each head of cattle produces more meat. Anderson said that means that there are fewer incentives to expand the flock.
Casey Maher, owner of Rancho Maher Angus in Morristown, SD, said he hopes that Trump’s tariffs level the playing field for American beef producers.
“We are optimistic and we will follow the course,” said Maher, a third generation rancher. “We have gone through difficult times, and if it is for the greatest good, I think the farmers are all.”
However, not all of them. Kagay, Missouri’s farmer, said uncertainty causes his own problems.
“I’m not very sure of these rates,” he said. “Will they stay? They won’t stay?
That uncertainty could spread far beyond agriculture and livestock if you create new fears about the economy as a whole. If consumers buy less beef because they are concerned About his grocery budgetsIt will not matter how much meat is imported.
“You are less likely to pay for a squeaky steak if you are worried about losing your job,” Tonsor said.
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Associated Press Sarah Raza writer contributed to this Sioux Falls report, South Dakota.
